Just eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
