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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd