Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
