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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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