A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
